Why did the North Win the Civil War?

    There is a common narrative about the Civil War. The North, a "nation of shopkeepers," overcame the superior military skill and leadership of the South because they were vastly more productive and numerous than the Confederates. I have been re-reading Paul Kennedy's The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, and he tells just that story. One of the interesting Kennedy-esque additions to this analysis is that he points to the relative financial strengths of the two powers as an addition to this story.
    And it does contain an important element of truth. Without the immense industrial and financial strength of the North, the conquest and occupation of the Confederacy would have been a pipe dream. Ironically, if the entire South had gone with South Carolina during the nullification crisis, then Andrew Jackson would probably have had no choice but to let them go. The larger population, economic base, railroad mileage, agricultural production, and all the other indicators of Northern economic superiority were all a necessary but not a sufficient condition for Northern victory.
    History is replete with examples where the economically inferior combatant was successful: the revolt of Spanish Netherlands, the ancient Greek states over Persia, and the American Revolutionary War to name but three. The relative economic strengths of the combatants must be compared to their relative objectives, terrain, leadership, and political systems. It would be simply absurd for the Confederacy to invade and conquer the Union, and the Union would have been able to successfully play the Confederacy's role  at a walk.
    It is appropriate to point out that the Union's objective of complete conquest was extraordinarily difficult. The Confederacy was massive, basically the size of Europe. The most important campaigning area had rivers running east-west (ready made for the defensive) instead of north-south (unlike the West where the rivers served as invasion highways). Further, the vast majority of the officer corps allied itself with the South (think about how bad the North would have been off without Sherman and Thomas; the former spent most of his life in the South and the latter was born in Virginia). And, as repugnant as it is to say, slavery allowed for a much higher relative mobilization of white males in the South than the North (this was later altered when the North started using black soldiers and the South refused to).
    In fact, there were several points where the Confederacy came very close to achieving its goal of independence. Gettysburg is only the most prominent point. Others include the election of 1864 where Sherman and Grant were both stalled, the duel invasions of the North that ended with the battles of Perryville and Antietam, the Trent Affair, and the initial maneuverings around Kentucky. In each case, a matrix of historical factors led to the Union just barely pulling it out.
    What are some of those historical factors? I have compiled a list:

1. Leadership, political: Lincoln vs. Davis is a no-brainer. But you can pretty much go down the list of important political and economic positions on each side and see gobs more talent on the Union side. Confederate society was essentially aristocratic and clannish while Northern society was (within strict parameters) meritocratic and bureaucratic. It isn't surprising that economic and administrative talent is going to be easier to find in societies where there is a lot of administration going on. Political leadership was probably most important in maintaining Union domestic unity to maintain the war.
2. Leadership, military: Contrary to common misconception, Union military leadership was, almost across the board, superior to the Confederacy's especially when one includes naval leadership. This is often hidden by the fact that the most famous battles and most watched front involved Union military incompetence at the highest levels (McClellan, Hooker, Burnside). But that incompetence did not lose the war for the North. Confederate military incompetence in the West probably did (or vastly contributed to their defeat). Further, Union staff work was generally superior.
3. Slavery: The institution of slavery had several negative impacts on the Confederate war effort. First, it served as the single most important ideological strut supporting Union will to prosecute the war (James McPherson has done good work on this). Second, freed slaves coming over to the Union side were an important source of labor and, later, combat troops. Finally, slavery was the single most important reason that England refused to intervene in the war, and no other European great power was willing to intervene without British support (France, especially, wanted to intervene).

This is not exhaustive, but I think they do point out the three most important factors explaining Union success. So the grand narrative of the Civil War should not be, "Those plucky Confederates held out for so long against long odds," but rather, "Using all their superior skill, will, and economy, the Union was able to accomplish the nigh-impossible."

Comments

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At least in the SPANISH Civil War, the Good Guys won.......

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Too bad the same can't be stated about the Faukland Islands War.

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Lincoln's decision to invade the Confederacy in 1861 looks pretty dubious after the 2000 election.

If only he had had the vision to let them go!

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They win the war cause they where better prepared and also the leaders where more wise that the general lee , they use the Chinese wisdom to fight and this was the principal reason why the north won the war .

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In fact, there were several points where the Confederacy came very close to achieving its goal of independence. Gettysburg is only the most prominent point.

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